# 全球頂尖商學院最新案例 (4).pdf

Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 2 - CASE 1: University Bank……….……….……………………………………………3 CASE 2: Mine in Chile………………………………………………………………7 CASE 3: UPS in Italy…………………………………………….…………………12 CASE 4: Refrigerators in India………………………………………………………16 CASE 5: Mexican Dishes……………….………………………………………………20 CASE 6: Centralized Distribution……………………………………………………23 CASE 7: Health Care in Canada……………………………………………………25 CASE 8: International Airline………………………………………………………29 CASE 9: Seattle Newspaper…………………………………………………………33 CASE 10: Jumbo Jet……………………………………………………………………38 CASE 11: Telecom….…………………………………………………………………41 CASE 12: Mining in Brazil…….………………………………………………………44 Cases written by Eduardo Fichmann, Jonathan Gerszberg, Michael Levenberg and Zhila Shariat. Edited by Kathryn Van Pelt and Dan Fishel. 2007 All rights reserved to the Management Consulting Association, Columbia Business School. Do not reproduce or distribute without permission of the MCA. Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 3 - r! “ r! “ r! “ r! “ BACKGROUND Firm: Boston Consulting Group Round: 2007 Summer, First Content: Qualitative and quantitative CASE QUESTION In Mexico banks prefer not to lend money to hospitals and schools because if one of these institutions defaults the Bank worries that it will be seen as the one responsible for liquidating their assets. We have a client who currently owns several universities. He is evaluating whether an opportunity exists to start a bank that would lend money to his various universities. There are three questions that he wants us to solve: Is there an opportunity to lend money to universities? If an opportunity exists, how big is it? How should he structure the bank? INTERVIEWER BRIEFING Recommended approach: The purpose of this case is to test the interviewee’s ability to determine whether it makes sense for the client to open a bank that serves universities. In particular, the interviewee should recognize that he/she needs to gather the necessary information to determine the market opportunity for such a bank. The interviewee should ask questions to gather the necessary information to determine the market size. Key facts: Population in Mexico is: o 0-15 years old: 7 million o 15-30 years old: 6 million o 30-45 years old: 5 million Total number of universities in Mexico: 200 Population growth: close to zero (use zero for the sake of simplicity) EXAMPLE DIALOGUE Interviewer: So, given the facts of the case, how would you consider going about analyzing this question for the client? Interviewee: I’d like to understand a few things to evaluate this decision. First, I’d like to understand the size of the market to see whether there is an opportunity or not. Next I Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 4 - would like to analyze who are the competitors, if any. In particular, I am interested in the competitors because they may decide to offer similar loans to institutions, like universities. Finally, I would like to know what the university can leverage from its own operations to develop this idea, etc. Interviewer: That seems like a good starting point. Let’s start by analyzing the market. How would you do that? Interviewee: Ok, I will start by analyzing how many people go to university per year. If the population grows at about 1% per year, this means that next year there could be more people attending universities than space available. I would use a guesstimate of the percent of population enrolled in universities to calculate the number of students currently enrolled across Mexico. For simplicity sake I will assume that all potential students attend universities in Mexico, excluding the percent that attends school abroad. Age range Population % Enrolled in University (guesstimate) Enrolled In University 0-15 years old 7 million 0% 0.0 million 15-30 years old 6 million 25% 1.5 million 30-45 years old 5 million 2% 0.1 million 1.6 million There are roughly 6 million Mexicans between the ages of 15 and 30, and I would assume that they are evenly distributed. That is, there are 400,000 people in each year of age (e.g. 400,000 people who are 15 years old, 400,000 people who are 16 years old, and so on until the age of 30). If I assume that 25% of the people between the ages of 15 and 30 go to university, that means we have 1.5 million students between the ages of 15 and 30. Interviewer: Those assumptions seem to be very good ones. What else would you need to consider? Interviewee: Ok, I think that I will need to figure out how many schools there are in Mexico and how many students are enrolled in each school. Interviewer: Sure, our client has told us that there are 200 universities in Mexico and we can assume there they are all at full capacity. Interviewee: Ok, so 1.6M divided by 200 means that there are 8,000 students at each school. I might think that this seems like a high number. In the United States we have part-time students and full-time students. If this is similar in Mexico, the universities would likely be able to accommodate more students without any investment. Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 5 - Interviewer: No, they can’t do that as the law prohibits it. Interviewee: Okay, so if the population grows at 1% per year and there are no new people going to university for other reasons (e.g. better economy) this means that in any given year we will have 1.6M multiplied by 1% new students. We would have 16,000 incremental students. Given that we know the schools are at full capacity, we would need two new schools. Interviewer: Okay, so now let s focus on how would you segment the schools in order to think about the credit scoring they may have? Interviewee: I would segment them based on: New school or just new branch to an existing school. I believe that it is less risky to lend to a company that already has a business in place. Flow of people to school: it s much more secure to lend to a school that has plenty of students in each year than to one that has the same number but distributed in a different way (e.g. most of the people finishing their careers and almost nobody in the first or second year). Geography: We are speaking in averages. There may be areas with no population growth. There may be an uneven dispersion. Interviewer: How would you calculate how much money a typical school would need? Interviewee: There are two different streams of costs we have to consider. On the one side the cost of building a new school – including buying the land, the construction, etc. – and the funds needed until the company reaches a state in which it has a positive free cash flow. Interviewer: Great. Tell me the number, or at least how to get it. Interviewee: The better is to rely on our client experience. He has 15 schools so there are some experiences we can leverage there? Interviewer: Let’s move on. How would you fund this project? Interviewee: I will think about a couple different ideas such as: Unilateral organizations (e.g. World Bank, etc.) The Government as it may need to help some private schools that focus on careers that are not available through public university. Banks: They may not be willing to do this on their own but may want to partner with someone that knows about this industry. Interviewer: Ok, fair enough. Our client is asking you to summarize the situation. What would be your recommendation? Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 6 - Interviewee: Can I take a moment to recap all the findings? Interviewer: Sure. Interviewee: I will tell the client that it seems to be a pretty interesting opportunity to provide capital to build new schools which would be at least two per year given the growth in the population. Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 7 - # # # # BACKGROUND Firm: Boston Consulting Group Round: 2007 Summer, First Content: Operations CASE QUESTION Our client is a company which is going to exploit a mine that is expected to be full of a very unique ore, and has asked us in which order his company should extract the ore from the field. The ore will then be sent to a factory that his company already owns. INTERVIEWER BRIEFING Recommended approach: The interviewer is testing whether the candidate can identify a useful algorithm to determine the best way to extract ore from this field. The candidate should not initially waste any time developing one idea too fully; instead he/she should come up with a few reasonable suggestions and test them for validity with the interviewer. The candidate should, like in most cases, be aware that he/she is missing critical information and should identify what he/she needs to solve the case and then ask the interviewer for this data. Key facts: The field is divided in cells of equal size. Once you blow one cell there is no way the truck can pass through it to go to the factory. This is a plan of the plant: Factory Trucks enter here with rocks containing 1% of ore. The output is 100% ore Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 8 - Each cell has different ore content and therefore each cell has a different cost of extraction. No growth in population (for sake of simplicity). EXAMPLE DIALOGUE Interviewer: So, tell me how we might approach this problem for our client? Interviewee: First, I would like make sure that I fully understand our client’s needs. Let me repeat the key issues… Our client wants us to provide him with a recommendation on what approach his team should take to extract the ore in order to maximize profits. Interviewer: Yes, that pretty much sums it up. So, what’s next? Interviewee: I can imagine a number of different ways of prioritizing which cells to take out first, such as: Profit: Price – Cost. Demand: Outlook of the price of the different types of ore. If the price is low (perhaps because demand today is lower), but we believe that this same ore will be sold for much more in the future (perhaps due to an increase in demand), it could make sense to begin extracting lower concentration cells. I am imagining that this could be similar to the oil industry. Think for example about the price of oil. The oil is in the field anyway so it’s better to exploit the places which the least of it when the price in the market is at a low level. Unless, of course, we can store the ore for long periods of time without a large opportunity cost by tying up capital and space. Capacity of the plant: Maybe there is a minimum level we need to provide to the plant as input. Maybe there is a maximum… this could determine how much we want to extract in any given time period, especially, if there are penalties for operating outside of this min-max range. Operational issues: For example, if I dig a hole in the ground and the truck cannot pass through that cell, it may be wise to start at the cells that are further from the factory so that I do not block off routes. Interviewer: Ok, let’s assume that the points that you have raised are all reasonable. This is a complex business and I was pleased to hear you touch on many of the important points. But, first, let’s focus on profits. How would you define profit? Interviewee: Ok, in this case profits would be (price of a ton of ore) * (expected content of ore in cell) – (the cost of extraction for that cell). I will then rank each of the cells based on its overall profit contribution and determine my extraction path from there. Of course, we need to consider that if we extract from one highly profitable cell, but it cuts Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 9 - off access to a lesser, but still profitable, cell, this is a cost of doing business under this assumption and should reduce my overall expected profits. Interviewer: Let’s assume that we map the field and this is what we get: x = tons of ore in that cell C = cost of extracting in that cell Interviewee: Do we have any information on today s price of ore? Interviewer: Yes, our client expects to get $10 dollars per ton of ore. Interviewee: So, for Cell 1 the profit will be: 1*10 – 3 = 7. For Cell 2 would be: 1.3*10 – 10 = 3. For Cell 3 would be: 1.1*10 – 5 = 6. So I will start for Cell 1, then Cell 3 and finally exploit Cell 2. Interviewer: Ok. What if price changes? Does it change your decision? Interviewee: Yes. Interviewer: Why? Interviewee: Let’s say price is now $30 per ton. For Cell 1 the profit will be: 1*30 – 3 = 27. For Cell 2: 1.3*39 – 10 = 29. For Cell 3: 1.1*30 – 5 = 28. So I would recommend extracting Cell 2, then Cell 3 and finally Cell 1. This is based on the fact that the costs appear to be fixed and do not change despite the overall price fluctuations that we are discussing. Cell 1 x = 1.0 C = 3 Cell 2 x = 1.3 C = 10 Cell 3 x = 1.1 C = 5 Factory Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 10 - Interviewer: Let’s move on. Our client has told us that per ton P although there is an expected growth in the industry let’s see whether this route would be currently profitable. What do we know about the cost structure? Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 32 - Interviewer: The total fixed cost of operating A319 and A320 are $41,000/per flight and $62,000/per flight respectively. There are some variable costs, but they are marginal. Interviewee: Basically for route A-B the client must use an A320, but A319 is an option for route A-C. Let’s analyze each route: - Revenues from A to B: (165 * 80% * 85%) * 600 = $67,320 - Cost for A to B: $62,000 - Revenues from A to C: 70 * 600 = 42,000 - Cost for A to C: $41,000 I am assuming the client could use the A320 for the main route and A319 for the new route. As we can see, the former route will remain profitable (8%) and the new route will give a 2.5% margin. Interviewer: What is your conclusion? Interviewee: Taking into consideration that 2.5% margin is not a very bad number for the airline industry and that our assumption does not take into consideration an additional demand generated by the new faster route from C to A, the client should at least launch a trial of this new route. The former route, from A to B, will remain profitable. Management Consulting Association Case Book 2007 - 33 - 9 9 9 9 wppr wppr wppr wppr BACKGROUND Firm: A.T. Kearney Round: 2007, Summer Content: Qualitative and quantitative CASE QUESTION Our client is a major media conglomerate, with radio stations, magazines and newspapers throughout the US. They have five ma