# 全球頂尖商學院最新案例 (9).pdf

www.fuquaconsulting.com DMCC 2009-2010 Case Book Sponsor Categories Firms Platinum Gold Silver Resource DMCC 2009-2010 Sponsors 2 Editors Note Welcome Students, The Duke MBA Consulting Club (―DMCC‖) is proud to present the official 2009-2010 DMCC Case Book. This case book is the result of several years of development. We created this book to help you prepare for your upcoming consulting case interviews. As you may already know, case interviews are a very important part of the hiring process for consulting firms. These interviews give you the opportunity to showcase your communication, client, creative and analytical skills to your interviewer. This book was developed to complement the Duke MBA Consulting Roadmap curriculum. We hope that using both will help lead you to success during the upcoming recruiting season. This case book could not have been completed without the valuable contributions of prior DMCC officers and our Executive Cabinet. We would like to thank personally everyone who helped to ensure this book came to fruition. Good luck with your preparation and remember that your fellow DMCC members are here to help! Please reach out to anyone on the cabinet if you feel that you are not ―cracking the case‖. Lastly, to the students of other top MBA programs using this case book during their preparation, we warmly welcome you to ―Team Fuqua.‖ Good luck! Katie Finnegan be sure not to miss early hints 10 1.a) Our client, a manufacturer of lawn mowers, is considering selling lawn mowers in China External opportunity: revenue growth, market size, competitors, demand 1.b) Our client, a manufacturer of lawn mowers, is considering manufacturing lawn mowers in China Internal opportunity: cost cutting, profit margins, quality issues 2.a) Our client is looking for suggestions on how to increase sales of copper Undifferentiated product: pricing, customer expansion, market dynamics 2.b) Our client is looking for suggestions on how to increase sales of laptop computers Differentiated product: new features, new segments, bundling The topics will all be covered in future DMCC sessions Small differences will have a big impact on the case 111 Case prompt Hammerjack is a regional chain of local hardware stores located in numerous neighborhood strip malls and shopping centers. They have enjoyed excellent performance for the past 15 years and have experiences declining profits in the past two years. They are concerned about their profitability and have hired you to explain their situation and provide recommendations to get them back on track. Small, local player. How do they compare to Home Depot? Profits = revenue - costs Are there other areas they could be in? Task: diagnose and suggest Balance active listening w/ pre-planning Retailer – let‘s look at number of customers however, we still have a loyal contractor segment because they only shop once a year Recommendation: I recommend that we offer training to improve our employees understanding of the local communities and work to align our products to our loyal contractor segment s needs Hammerjack example, cont. 17 ? Not being prepared because of too much case focus ? Being vague/not specifying the impact ? Not discussing skills that support candidacy (i.e. core consulting competencies) ? Not having a good answer for ―why consulting‖ one approach is outlined below. Analysis Provide these information on request: ? The total US population is approximately 300 million. ? Based on a normal distribution with the average life span of 80 years, approximately 1/2 of the population falls between 25-55, or about 150 million people. ? Approximately 1/2 of them are male, or 75 million. ? Of the 75 million 25- to 55-year-old men in the country, assume that at least 1/2 would read a magazine or ~40 million. ? Given the wide range of magazines on the market assume that only 10% of magazine readers would want to read a men s journal, or 4 million target customers. ? As a new magazine assume that you can generate a 5% share of the men s magazine market in year one, or 200,000 customers. ? Based on other magazines selling for $2.50-$5.00, assume a cover price of $4/magazine at the newsstand and $2/magazine for a subscription. ? Now make some assumptions on how many customers will buy at the newsstand versus subscription: assume 50% subscribe (100,000 customers) and 50% buy at the newsstand (100,000 customers). Market Size Estimation Unknown roundDMCC 27 28 Analysis Monthly revenues amount to $200,000 (subscription) + $400,000 (newsstand) = $600,000. For simplicity assume that all target customers buy a magazine every month. This would generate total annual revenues of $600,000 X 12 or $7.2 million. Conclusion: In this case, given the CEO s stated goal of $12 million in circulation revenues, it does not make good business sense to launch the magazine. Performance Evaluation Expected: The candidate recognizes that this is a market estimation case and makes the appropriate assumptions and proceeds in a logical and structured way. Good: The candidate has a good plan to tackle the problem. The candidate explains his/her plans at the start and provides reasoning behind the approach. The candidate‘s assumptions are realistic and the candidate reaches some conclusion. Excellent: Apart from the criteria above, the candidate also reaches a very sound conclusion based on the data unearthed. The candidate‘s assumptions and estimations are very realistic and the candidate is quick in identifying all the elements of the problem. The candidate proceeds with the assumptions in the right direction and estimates the market size without any prompts from the interviewer. Market Size Estimation Unknown roundDMCC Case 2: Polly Publishing Market Estimation DMCC Round 1 Prompt How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? Guidance Ask the candidate to walk you through his thought process top-down, bottom-up. Once his /her structure is in place, ask him/her to compute the calculation. Various methods may be used to estimate the answer. Analysis One approach to solve the problem: Assume 3 million households in the Chicago area. Make an estimate of how many people have pianos. Break the income of the households into four quarters (750,000 each). ? 20% of highest income quartile has pianos ? 10% of second quarter ? 5% of third ? 0% of fourth Estimate how often these pianos are tuned: ? Highest income quarter tunes pianos once a year ? Second quarter once every five years ? Third quarter once every 10 years ? Fourth quarter doesn‘t tune at all Case 2: Polly Publishing 29 30 Analysis Estimate a piano tuner can tune five pianos a day, 250 days a year Therefore 112,500/250 = 450 pianos a day to tune 450/5 = 90 pianos tuners needed. Sanity Check: The yellow pages would be a credible source to check the actual number of piano turners in Chicago. Also it is fair to add another 50% to that figure assuming that some piano turners might rely on word-of-mouth advertising. By the way there are 51 piano tuners listed in the Chicago Yellow Pages. Performance Evaluation Market estimation cases have no right or wrong answer, rather the interviewer is looking for a logical approach and structure to the candidate‘s problem-solving skills. Always clarify the assumptions that you make. The above solution is just one of many ways to answer this question Market Estimation DMCC Round 1 Case 2: Polly Publishing Market Estimation Case 3: Japanese Golf Ball Market Prompt You are going to visit a client who sells golf balls in Japan. Having had no time for background research, you sit on the plane wondering about the size of the market for golf balls in Japan, and what drives demand. Your plane lands in fifteen minutes. How do you answer these questions? Guidance There is no one right answer. The purpose of this exercise is to measure the candidate‘s ability to think logically. If the candidate struggle, encourage her outline a general framework for how she is going to solve the problem, and then come up with reasonable assumptions about the inputs that she needs. A good rule of thumb is to encourage the candidate to use round numbers. Analysis If asked, the population of Japan is 125 million. There is no one right answer. The analysis below is an example. The candidate should make reasonable assumptions (ask for logic behind assumption) to arrive at the answer. Proportion that play golf: 1/5. Purchase Frequency: the average golfer plays 20 times per year and uses four balls per time. 125 * 1/5 * 20 * 4 = 2,000 million. The estimated market size for golf balls in Japan is 2 billion. Performance Evaluation Expected: The candidate will use a logical linear thought process to arrive at a market size and recognized the golf ball sales are driven by end user demand. The candidate will demonstrate confidence in his logical thought process. Good: The candidate is able to point out specific weaknesses in his approach and how those would affect his answer. Excellent: The candidate will show poise and confidence and quick business intuition . He will also recognize other potential drivers of demand such as golf course needs, business advertising, etc. DMCC Unknown Round 31 Market Estimation DMCC Round 1 Case 4: Disposable Diapers Prompt You have been retained jointly by Pampers and a federal commission on waste management. They would like you to estimate the volume percentage of disposable diapers in the total US household garbage. Guidance This is a market sizing case. The case is based off estimations and the candidate‘s ability to work with those estimations. While there are no right/wrong answers in market estimation cases, the interviewer usually has a range of ?correctness‘, if you will. The answer should fall within interviewer‘s estimate to the extent that assumptions made are realistic. The interviewer is looking for a logical approach and structure to the candidate‘s problem-solving skills. Ask the candidate to walk you through his thought process – top-down, bottom-up. Once his /her structure is in place, ask him/her to compute the calculation. Various methods may be used to estimate the answer; one approach is outlined below. Analysis The following is all generated by the interviewee, not from the interviewer: Volume percentage = Diapers (volume) / US household garbage (volume) Numerator ? Population of the United States: 300 million ? Proportion of population that are disposable diaper-wearing children: 10% = 30 million ? Number of diapers used per day: 4 = 120 million diapers per day. ? Volume per diaper: 500 mL (or use another number in gallons/oz if you prefer) ? Volume thrown away per day = 500mL * 120 million = 60,000 million mL = 60 million liters Denominator ? Population of the United States: 300 million ? Average volume of household garbage can: 10 liters (or use gallons if preferred) ? Average number of emptied bags per day: 1 = 10 liters per day ? Total volume of garbage/day: 300M * 10L = 3,000 million liters Ratio ? 60 million liters of diapers/ 3,000 million liters of garbage = 2% 32 Performance Evaluation Expected: Candidate will develop a structured approach to finding a solution. Assumptions will be clarified and based on reasonable logic. Good: Candidate will use numbers or round appropriately to simplify calculations. Excellent: In addition to the above, the candidate will evaluate his/her final number and provide explanation as to how changes to assumptions would affect the estimation. Market Estimation DMCC Round 1 Case 4: Disposable Diapers 33 Market Estimation DMCC Unknown Round Case 5: Chewing Gum Prompt How would you estimate the size of the annual U.S chewing gum market? Guidance This is a market sizing case. The case is based off estimations and the candidate‘s ability to work with those estimations. While there are no right/wrong answers in market estimation cases, the interviewer usually has a range of ?correctness‘, if you will. The answer should fall within interviewer‘s estimate to the extent that assumptions made are realistic. The interviewer is looking for a logical approach and structure to the candidate‘s problem-solving skills. Ask the candidate to walk you through his thought process – top-down, bottom-up. Once his /her structure is in place, ask him/her to compute the calculation. Various methods may be used to estimate the answer; one approach is outlined below. Analysis The following is all generated by the interviewee, not from the interviewer: ? Population of the US: 300 million ? The heaviest users are between the ages of 10-20. They comprise roughly 20% of the population, or 60 million. ? Estimate that these people chew two packs per week. Estimate number of packs/year: 2 packs/week * 60 million people * 50 weeks = 6,000 million packs. ? For all other users, (80% of 300 million population, or 240 million) estimate a usage rate of one half pack per week: 0.5 packs/week * 240 million people * 50 weeks = 6,000 million packs. ? Adding these two figures, estimate the total chewing gum market to be 6,000 + 6,000 = 12,000 million (or 12 billion) packs per year. ? Now check for reasonableness. We have the volume, what about the revenue? How much is 12,000 million packs in terms of dollar sales? Estimate for average price of pack: $0.75. 12 billion packs * .75 = $9 billion 34 Performance Evaluation Expected: Candidate will develop a structured approach to finding a solution. Assumptions will be clarified and based on reasonable logic. Good: Candidate will use numbers or round appropriately to simplify calculations. Excellent: In addition to the above, the candidate will evaluate his/her final number and provide explanation as to how changes to assumptions would affect the estimation. Case 5: Chewing Gum Market Estimation DMCC Unknown Round 35 VALUATION 36 Valuation DMCC Round 1 Case 6: Scotch Bar Prompt You are sitting in one of Chicago s oldest scotch bars with a fellow intern. It is a Friday night after a busy week at your summer internship. The weather is mild—a perfect summer evening. While enjoying one of the bar s finest stogies and sipping an 18-year old McCallen single malt, your friend asks you how much you think the bar is worth. Using a back-of-the-envelope calculation, how would you go about determining the value of this bar? Guidance This is an estimation case. Because the candidate does not know much about the bar he/she should ask for details. To estimate cash flow, a ―Revenue – Cost‖ framework is useful. The value of the bar is the present value of future cash flows. The following information should be given if requested: ? Product Mix and Pricing: The bar sells two things, liquor and cigars. The average cost of a cigar is $9 and the average cost of a drink is $12. (Note: these average cost numbers will prove irrelevant, but in cases one is sometimes given irrelevant info.) ? Capacity: The maximum capacity is 100 people. ? Location: The bar is located on one of Chicago s busier streets fo